Federal EV Tax Credit Phase Out Tracker By Automaker

EVAdoption will update our Federal EV tax credit phase-out tracker every month or two, so check back on a regular basis. In the table below, we’ve estimated when we expect certain automakers will reach 200,000 units based on their current (and expected future) monthly EV sales run rate.

Countdown to 200,000 US EV Sales By Automaker – Starting the Federal EV Tax Credit Phase Out

Federal EV Tax Credit Tracker - through March 2018 - EVAdoption

(Note: Tesla does not break out sales by geographic market, so these numbers are estimates from InsideEVs.)

Consumers, analysts, electric vehicle advocates, lawmakers and others are all curious about what will happen to the growth in EV sales when the US Federal EV tax credit begins to phaseout for some automakers. We won’t know of course until the credit phase out actually begins for some manufacturers, such as Tesla in 2018 and General Motors in late 2018 or early 2019.

Our view at EV Adoption is that the credit phase out will have only a minor impact on the Tesla Model 3, but could hurt sales of GM’s Chevrolet Bolt and Nissan’s LEAF. However, beyond GM and Tesla, no other automaker at their current sales run rate (which will increase of course), is likely to reach the 200,000 unit sales threshold until around 2020 at the earliest.

In March, Tesla surpassed GM in total historical EV sales and only needs to sell and deliver less than an estimated 21,000 more units to start the tax credit phase out process. Tesla should reach 200,000 units sold in the US in Q2 (June) 2018, but the company could decide to deliver enough of the Model 3s produced to non US reservation holders to delay reaching 200,000 until Q3.

Tesal Q2 2018 likler sales - minus Model 3

Additional Resources on the Tax Credits: