Below is an updated forecast using sales data through May 2018 – for Tesla, GM, Nissan, BMW and Ford – of when they will likely reach the 200,000 US EV sales milestone; followed by a table of all of the parent auto brands that have sold EVs in the US to date:
Countdown to 200,000 US EV Sales By Automaker – Starting the Federal EV Tax Credit Phase Out (through May 2018)
(Note: Tesla does not break out sales by geographic market, so these numbers are estimates from InsideEVs.)
Consumers, analysts, electric vehicle advocates, lawmakers and others are all curious about what will happen to the growth in EV sales when the US Federal EV tax credit begins to phaseout for some automakers. We won’t know of course until the credit phase out actually begins for some manufacturers, such as Tesla in 2018 and General Motors in late 2018 or early 2019.
Our view at EV Adoption is that the credit phase out will have only a minor impact on the Tesla Model 3, but could hurt sales of GM’s Chevrolet Bolt and Nissan’s LEAF. However, beyond GM and Tesla, no other automaker is likely to reach the 200,000 unit sales threshold until around 2022 at the earliest.
In March, Tesla surpassed GM in total historical EV sales and now only needs to sell and deliver less than an estimated 6,000 more units to start the tax credit phase out process. Tesla should reach 200,000 units sold in the US in Q2 (June) 2018, but the company could decide to deliver the majority of Model 3s produced in June to non Canadian reservation holders to delay reaching 200,000 until Q3.
EVAdoption will update our Federal EV tax credit phase-out tracker every few months, so check back on a regular basis.
Additional Articles and Resources on the Tax Credits:
- Federal EV Tax Credit Phase Out Tracker By Automaker
- Huge Flaws in Federal EV Tax Credit Will Hurt US Automakers Beginning in 2020
- Edmunds: “Elimination of federal tax credits likely to kill U.S. EV market” (wrong)
How The Federal Electric Vehicle (EV) Tax Credit Works
- Edmunds – Electric Vehicle Tax Credits: What You Need to Know
- Federal and State Laws and Incentives
- IRS Form 8936 (Form required to file with your tax return)
- IRS: IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales