EV Adoption will update our Federal EV tax credit phase-out tracker each month, so check back on a regular basis. In our table, we’ve calculated an estimated maximum number of quarters to reach 200,000 units for each automaker based on their current monthly EV sales run rate. (Note: Tesla does not break out sales by geographic market, so these numbers are estimates from InsideEVs.) These run rates will begin to change significantly in the next few years as brands such as Audi, BMW, Daimler (Mercedes-Benz), Porsche, Volvo and Volkswagen launch new EVs.
Countdown to 200,000 US EV Sales By Automaker – Starting the Federal EV Tax Credit Phase Out
(for Federal Tax Credit Purposes)
|Fiat Chrysler Automotive (FCA)||27,568||172,432||8,602||1,229||47||N/A|
|Ford Motor Company||100,491||99,509||16,790||2,399||14||2021-2022|
|General Motors||158,257||41,743||33,967||4,852||3||Q4 2018-Q1 2019|
|Tesla||148,156||51,844||37,257||5,322||3||Q1 2018-Q2 2018|
|Toyota Motor Corporation||63,921||136,079||16,682||2,383||19||2024|
*Manufacturer sales count beginning Jan 1, 2010; **Through October 2017 | Auto sales data: InsideEVs; Wikipedia | Research and chart: EVAdoption.com | *** Assumes Model 3 ramp up
Consumers, analysts, electric vehicle advocates, lawmakers and others are all curious about what will happen to the growth in EV sales when the US Federal EV tax credit begins to phaseout for some automakers. We won’t know of course until the credit phase out actually begins for some manufacturers, such as Tesla in 2018 and General Motors in late 2018 or early 2019. (Note: The Federal EV tax credit is at risk of being eliminated by Congress at the end of 2017.)
Our view at EV Adoption is that the credit phase out will have only a minor impact on the Tesla Model 3, but could hurt sales of GM’s Chevrolet Bolt and Nissan’s LEAF. However, beyond GM and Tesla, no other automaker at their current sales run rate (which will increase of course), is likely to reach the 200,000 unit sales threshold until around 2020 at the earliest.
GM is currently closer than Tesla to the 200,000 threshold and only needs to sell less than 42,000 more units to start the phase out process. But, assuming Tesla (less than 52,000 away) is successful in scaling up production of the Model 3 during Elon Musk’s stated period of “manufacturing hell,” the EV maker should reach 200,000 units sold in the US before GM, in either Q1 or Q2 of 2018.
Additional Resources on the Tax Credits:
- How The Federal Electric Vehicle (EV) Tax Credit Works
- Edmunds – Electric Vehicle Tax Credits: What You Need to Know
- Federal and State Laws and Incentives
- IRS Form 8936 (Form required to file with your tax return)
- IRS: IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales