Consumers, analysts, electric vehicle advocates, lawmakers and others are all curious about what will happen to the growth in EV sales when the US Federal EV tax credit phases out partially or completely for some automakers. Tesla reached the milestone in July 2018 and General Motors reached it in December 2018.
EVAdoption will update our Federal EV tax credit phase-out tracker a few times per year, so check back on a regular basis. We are currently updating sales estimates through December 31, 2021 for the automakers.
Based on our recent estimates and forecast, Toyota will be the next manufacturer to reach the 200,000 tax credit phaseout threshold, likely in Q1 of 2022. Ford is most likely to quickly follow Toyota and reach 200,000 sales of EVs in Q3 2022, followed by Nissan, but not until at least Q2 or Q3 of 2023.