EV Sales Forecasts

Below is our latest long-term forecast for new electric vehicle (BEV and PHEV)  sales in the US through 2030. EV sales should grow to reach approximately 29.5% of all new car sales in 2030 from an expect roughly 3.4% in 2021.

This would also see sales increase to 4.7 million from a little more than 500,000 in 2021.


US-EVs-BEV-PHEV-Sales-Sales-Share-Forecast-2021-2030

Adding up the annual sales beginning from 2010 gets us to approximately 26.2 million cumulative electric vehicles sold, but factoring in an increasing rate of EVs going out of operation each year, we arrive at ~25.19 million EVs in operation. This is an increase of 14X from the roughly 1.8 million at the end of 2020. 

Cumulative EVs in operation 2010-2030-chart

When looking at the state of California, our 2030 forecast for just BEVs (not including PHEVs) shows BEVs as a share of new vehicle sales reaching nearly 57%.

2019-2030 California BEV Sales & Share Forecast-chart

When will sales of electric cars (EVs) reach mass adoption? (see presentation below)

 

 

Creating forecasts of when mass adoption will occur is a fun exercise, but no one can say with any real confidence that their prediction is likely to be spot on. There are a couple of dozen variables (gas and battery prices, regulations, battery range, charger speed and availability, supply of new EV models, etc.) that can either speed up or slow down EV adoption.

EVAdoption has joined the fray of forecasting future electric vehicle sales, but with specific scope and definitions:

  • We are defining mass adoption as EVs comprising 16% of new auto sales within a specific geographic market.
  • At least for the near term, we are focusing only on two markets: The US and California.

 

US EV Sales Forecast 2019-2028
California EV Sales Forecast 2019-2028

 

Assumptions:

  1. US auto sales: Auto analysts and economists do not agree on future US auto sales, but for our forecast, we are assuming that auto sales will see a modest decline over the next several years do to a slowing economy, changing purchase behavior including consumers holding onto cars longer and forgoing second and third cars by sharing and use of ride-sharing services.
  2. California auto sales: We are assuming that unlike the US overall, auto sales in California will remain relatively flat over the next several years. This is based on California’s continued strong economy and high-tech employment and Californian’s love of driving nice cars.
  3. New EV model introductions: We expect the introduction of a significant number of “affordable” EVs in the 2020-2022 time frame.
  4. Median battery range: Luxury car battery range will easily average 250-300 miles by 2020, the key will be availability of affordable SUVs and crossovers with 250 miles of range.
  5. Charging speed: DC fast charging time to 80% battery level is reduced to about 15-20 minutes by around 2022.