Creating forecasts of when mass adoption will occur is a fun exercise, but no one can say with any real confidence that their prediction is likely to be spot on. There are a couple of dozen variables (gas and battery prices, regulations, battery range, charger speed and availability, supply of new EV models, etc.) that can either speed up or slow down EV adoption.
EVAdoption has joined the fray of forecasting future electric vehicle sales, but with specific scope and definitions:
- We are defining mass adoption as EVs comprising 16% of new auto sales within a specific geographic market.
- At least for the near term, we are focusing only on two markets: The US and California.