Consumers, analysts, electric vehicle advocates, lawmakers and others are all curious about what will happen to the growth in EV sales when the US Federal EV tax credit phases out partially or completely for some automakers. Tesla reached the milestone in July 2018 and General Motors reached it in December 2018.
EVAdoption will update our Federal EV tax credit phase-out tracker a few times per year, so check back on a regular basis. We are currently updating sales estimates through December 31, 2021 for the automakers.
Based on our recent estimates and forecast, Toyota will be the next manufacturer to reach the 200,000 tax credit phaseout threshold, likely in Q1 of 2022. Ford is most likely to quickly follow Toyota and reach 200,000 sales of EVs in Q3 2022, followed by Nissan, but not until at least Q2 or Q3 of 2023.
2010 - June 2020 | 2010 - Dec 31, 2021 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 605,373 | 1,090,134 | -890,134 |
| General Motors | 234,523 | 271,718 | -71,718 |
| Nissan | 144,913 | 164,252 | 35,748 |
| Toyota Motor Corporation | 127,593 | 192,342 | 7,658 |
| Ford Motor Company | 123,030 | 160,580 | 39,420 |
| BMW | 99,481 | 136,690 | 63,310 |
| Stellantis | 46,978 | 83,893 | 116,107 |
| Honda Motors | 36,852 | 41,293 | 158,787 |
| Mercedes-Benz | 27,881 | 25,064 | 174,396 |
| Kia | 20,003 | 179,997 | |
| Volkswagen | 18,277 | 35,395 | 164,605 |
| Audi | 18,466 | 181,534 | |
| Hyundai | 15,593 | 184,407 | |
| Porsche | 15,341 | 184,659 | |
| Volvo | 14,242 | 185,758 | |
| Mitsubishi | 9,815 | 13,397 | 186,603 |
| Jaguar | 4,033 | 5,661 | 194,339 |
| Subaru | 1,660 | 5,120 | 194,880 |
| Land Rover | 250 | 199,750 | |
| Rivian | 920 | 199,080 | |
| Lucid Motors | 577 | 199,483 | |
| Mazda | 181 | 199,919 |
Notes: *As defined by IRS. BMW includes Mini; Stellantis includes Chrysler Jeep and Fiat; Mercedes-Benz includes smart; and Toyota will include Lexus (which only offered an EV beginning in 2022 | Auto sales data: InsideEVs Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard; Wikipedia; GoodCarBadCar; IRS; EVAdoption estimates | GM, Nissan, Toyota, and Mitsubishi are the only automakers that publicly report sales of their individual EV models. BMW, Ford, and Nissan are the only 3 OEMs that publicly report their total EV (BEV & PHEV) sales to the IRS. As a result, total sales for all other automakers are estimates. | Research & Chart: Loren McDonald / EVAdoption.com
Additional Articles and Resources on the Tax Credits:
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