Updated through June 2020
Consumers, analysts, electric vehicle advocates, lawmakers and others are all curious about what will happen to the growth in EV sales when the US Federal EV tax credit phases out partially or completely for some automakers. Tesla reached the milestone in July 2018 and General Motors reached it in December 2018.
No other automaker is likely to reach the 200,000 unit sales threshold until at least 2022-2023. EVAdoption will update our Federal EV tax credit phase-out tracker every quarter, so check back on a regular basis.
Based on our recent estimates and forecast, Toyota will be the next manufacturer to reach the 200,000 tax credit phaseout threshold, likely in Q2 of 2022.
Ford is most likely to quickly follow Toyota and reach 200,000 sales of EVs in Q3 2022, followed by Nissan, but not until at least Q2 or Q3 of 2023.
2010 - June 2020**
|Toyota Motor Corporation||127,593||72,407|
|Ford Motor Company||123,030||76,970|
|Fiat Chrysler Automotive (FCA)||46,978||153,022|
Notes: *As defined by IRS. BMW includes Mini, FCA includes Chrysler, Mercedes-Benz includes smart | **EV Sales beginning Jan 1, 2010 through June 2020 | Auto sales data: InsideEVs Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard; Wikipedia; GoodCarBadCar; EVAdoption estimates | *** Tesla does not break out sales by geographic market, so these numbers are estimates | **** GM no longer reports sales data on a monthly basis, but just quarterly – GM numbers are also estimates | Research & Chart: Loren McDonald / EVAdoption.com
Additional Articles and Resources on the Tax Credits: