Federal EV Tax Credit Phase Out Tracker By Automaker

Updated through June 2020

Consumers, analysts, electric vehicle advocates, lawmakers and others are all curious about what will happen to the growth in EV sales when the US Federal EV tax credit phases out partially or completely for some automakers. Tesla reached the milestone in July 2018 and General Motors reached it in December 2018.

No other automaker is likely to reach the 200,000 unit sales threshold until at least 2022-2023. EVAdoption will update our Federal EV tax credit phase-out tracker every quarter, so check back on a regular basis.

Based on our recent estimates and forecast, Toyota will be the next manufacturer to reach the 200,000 tax credit phaseout threshold, likely in Q2 of 2022.

Ford is most likely to quickly follow Toyota and reach 200,000 sales of EVs in Q3 2022, followed by Nissan, but not until at least Q2 or Q3 of 2023.

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Manufacturer*	Total Sales 2010 - June 2020**	# To Reach 200,000
Tesla	605,373	-405,373
General Motors	234,523	-34,523
Nissan	144,913	55,087
Toyota Motor Corporation	127,593	72,407
Ford Motor Company	123,030	76,970
BMW	99,481	100,519
Fiat Chrysler Automotive (FCA)	46,978	153,022
Honda Motors	36,852	163,148
Mercedes-Benz	27,881	172,119
Kia	20,003	179,997
Volkswagen	18,277	181,723
Audi	18,466	181,534
Hyundai	15,593	184,407
Porsche	15,341	184,659
Volvo	14,242	185,758
Mitsubishi	9,815	190,185
Jaguar	4,033	195.967
Subaru	1,660	198,340
Land Rover	250	199,750

Notes: *As defined by IRS. BMW includes Mini, FCA includes Chrysler, Mercedes-Benz includes smart | **EV Sales beginning Jan 1, 2010 through June 2020 | Auto sales data: InsideEVs Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard; Wikipedia; GoodCarBadCar; EVAdoption estimates | *** Tesla does not break out sales by geographic market, so these numbers are estimates | **** GM no longer reports sales data on a monthly basis, but just quarterly – GM numbers are also estimates | Research & Chart: Loren McDonald / EVAdoption.com

Additional Articles and Resources on the Tax Credits: