It’s no secret that Tesla dominates electric vehicle sales in the US with a sales share well above 50% since the launch of the Model 3 in 2018. However in my latest EVAdoption long-term US forecast I estimate that by the end of 2030, Tesla’s electric vehicle sale share in the US will drop to ~21%.
While this is a fairly significant drop in sales share from the 66.6% I’m forecasting for 2020, it is not unexpected as the other OEMs gear up EV production. I’m forecasting Tesla US sales will increase to about 1.05 million in 2030 from 226,010 in 2020 – an increase of roughly 4.6 times 2020’s sales.
I recently completed an overall US EV (including both BEVs and PHEVs) sales forecast out to 2030 that includes the number of EV models growing from the 55 EVs available during 2020 to 215 at the end of 2030.
The number of Tesla models could increase to 11 from the current four. The additional 7 models potentially being the:
- Model “2” (a small Civic-sized sedan or hatchback)
- Small/mid-sized pick-up
- Large SUV
- Small SUV
- And the long-rumored (via Elon Musk) minivan.
The biggest declines occur during the period of 2021 through 2025 when Tesla’s EV share falls to 24%, but then remains relatively steady in the low 20s the remainder of the decade. From 2020 through 2025, when overall EV sales are still relatively low, an estimated 100+ additional new EVs will be available in the market. During this period of significant EV sales growth among other OEMs, Tesla will likely add 3 new models – the Cybertruck, the very low-volume Roadster, and possibly the small “Model 2” that is likely being designed primarily for China and Europe.
Even at around 21%, however, that would mean that 2 out of every 10 EVs purchased or leased in the US are Tesla models, from the current 6.5 out of 10. In 2019, the Ford brand (not including Lincoln) had the highest percentage of total overall US vehicle sales at 13.4% – so Tesla’s ~21% share of just EV sales would still be impressive from a market share perspective.
Looking at the above chart starting with the original Roadster back in 2011, you can see how Tesla’s share of EV sales increased after the Model S launched in 2012, then the Model X in late 2015, and the Model 3 in mid 2017 and then the Model Y in 2020. And while we might see a low-volume of Cybertrucks reach customers in late 2021, sales of the Model S and X are likely to be flat or decline and the Model 3 will likely be flat or see a slight increase or decrease in units delivered as the more popular crossover form factor of the Model Y steals sales from its sedan sister model.
Of course, a lot can happen in the next 10 years that could impact Tesla’s EV sales share. My latest overall forecast is fairly aggressive and assumes that the legacy automakers actually deliver on bringing about 180 more EVs to market (I anticipate some PHEV models being discontinued), they produce them at scale, don’t have battery supply issues, and consumers really begin to be comfortable buying them in large numbers beginning around 2024 or 2025.
Because of Tesla’s innovation, speed and aspirational brand, growing its sales at a steady pace over this decade seems likely – the question becomes how quickly and at what scale will consumers buy EVs from automakers other than Tesla. Besides its EV-only brand and focus, direct sales model, superior battery efficiency and range – Tesla’s network of Supercharger DC fast chargers continue to be a significant competitive advantage for consumers leery of taking road trips in an EV.
Current 2020 Estimates
For 2020, my US forecast is that Tesla will deliver 226,010 vehicles (Models S, X, 3 and Y). The company’s US sales under my forecast would account for 45.7% of global sales.
And sales in China of the Model 3 could account for 36% in 2020, more than the 34% in the US – which shows the importance of China to Tesla’s future.
For the year 2020 in the US, I’m forecasting that Tesla will account for 65% of all (BEV and PHEV) electric vehicle sales in the US.
And when only including only BEVs, Tesla has a crazy level of dominance at 83.5% of BEV sales.
The next 10 years of electric vehicle adoption in the US are going to be fascinating to watch. I expect Tesla to remain far and away the sales leader in 2030, but several other automakers including Toyota (because of its PHEVs), Ford, Volkswagen, Rivian, and Nissan will grow their market and chip away at Tesla’s dominance.