Below is our latest long-term forecast for new electric vehicle (BEV and PHEV) sales in the US through 2030. EV sales should grow to reach approximately 29.5% of all new car sales in 2030 from an expect roughly 3.4% in 2021.
This would also see sales increase to 4.7 million from a little more than 500,000 in 2021.
Adding up the annual sales beginning from 2010 gets us to approximately 26.2 million cumulative electric vehicles sold, but factoring in an increasing rate of EVs going out of operation each year, we arrive at ~25.19 million EVs in operation. This is an increase of 14X from the roughly 1.8 million at the end of 2020.
When looking at the state of California, our 2030 forecast for just BEVs (not including PHEVs) shows BEVs as a share of new vehicle sales reaching nearly 57%.
Creating forecasts of when mass adoption will occur is a fun exercise, but no one can say with any real confidence that their prediction is likely to be spot on. There are a couple of dozen variables (gas and battery prices, regulations, battery range, charger speed and availability, supply of new EV models, etc.) that can either speed up or slow down EV adoption.
EVAdoption has joined the fray of forecasting future electric vehicle sales, but with specific scope and definitions:
Assumptions:
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