The biggest hurdle to adoption of electric vehicles in the US remains supply, as 42% (14 out of 33) of legacy automaker brands that have vehicles for sale in the US – still do not offer an EV (either BEV or PHEV) for sale in the world’s second largest auto market.
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Sales of electric vehicles will return to positive growth in 2020, with a forecasted volume of new BEV and PHEV sales of 388,880.
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Which EV models will likely be the top sellers in 2021 and 2022 and drive the EV sales back to a significant rate of growth?
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The media and Tesla shorts and haters love to tout every new BEV that comes to market as the latest “Tesla Killer.” That moniker usually has little basis in reality, but is simply used by headline writers to attract eyeballs and haters and shorts to rally the bearish story on Tesla.
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States with a higher number of EV models available average an EV sales share of 10 times greater than those with many fewer models.
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Two fundamental hurdles to mass adoption of EVs are: 1) The lack of choice and availability of EV models, especially in certain categories; and 2) The price differential between EVs and gas/diesel-powered vehicles.
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During 2019 to 2020 we expect an estimated 26 new electric vehicles (both BEV and PHEV) will be available in the United States, according to new EVAdoption analysis.
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In a few years when EVs start to become more mainstream, being normal and just being viewed as another car will be a good thing. But for the near term, and in markets where EVs are primarily only being purchased by “early adopters,” EV models have to stand out and be differentiated in a fairly significant way to see exceptional sales.
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Through March of 2019 and using data from the InsideEVs Sales Scorecard, Tesla has accounted for 32% of all electric vehicles in the US. General Motors is a distant second at 18% share of total EV sales. The two automakers combined have accounted for 50% of sales.
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GM’s November 2018 announcement that they would end production of the Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and the made in
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